Free Picks
LT Profits
Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz
The Miami Heat and the Utah Jazz combined for only 150 points in an 80-70 Heat win in Miami in December, but we are looking for this rematch to be played at a totally different pace.
The Jazz play at a much faster pace when they play at home, feeding off of what is usually a frenzied crowd. Utah is averaging a whopping 104.0 points per game at home while shooting a sensational 50.7 percent from the floor. At the same time, because of that frenetic pace, they are also allowing an average of 97.2 points here, and that combined average of 201.7 is nearly 10 points higher than this posted total.
The Utah offense is certainly in good current form, as they are coming off of a 111-93 road upset of the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday. The Jazz also put up 114 points the last time they played here at home last Wednesday.
The Heat are also playing relatively high scoring games on the road this season, but it is for the wrong reason, as their defense has been quite generous away from home, surrendering 100.6 points per game. Combine that with the 97.9 points they are averaging offensively away from home, and Miami road games are producing 198.5 points, more than six points higher than this posted total.
So why is this posted total as low as it is? Well, the Heat do have a tendency to have nights where they cannot shoot the ball in the ocean, and one such occasion came yesterday in a 94-84 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center. Still, they do usually rebound off of poor shooting games like that, as only twice this season has Miami been held to under 90 points in back-to-back games.
Finally, it appears that playing on consecutive nights usually has an adverse effect on the Heat defense, as they are allowing 102.5 points per game when playing with no rest this season. Thus, we would not be shocked if Utah puts up around 110 tonight, virtually assuring that this game goes Over.
Pick: Heat/Jazz Over 192
EZWINNERS
Golden State Warriors +5.5
The Warriors have played the Cavs very tough at home the last three seasons. Cleveland is 3-0 in those game but only by a combined seven points. The Warriors are playing pretty well now that their big guys are healthy and they have covered seven out of their last eight games. This is the second of back to back games for Cleveland and their third road game in four nights. The tempo that Golden State likes to play at could become a factor for a road weary team. Cleveland is only 5-7 against the spread in the second of back to back games. Take the points.
JR TIPS
Bucks at Suns
The Phoenix Suns have not been able to protect big leads recently. The Suns jumped out to a 13 point advantage in the first half against the Heat but lost 109-105 on Friday and 2 nights earlier they blew a 16-point lead against Houston before pulling out the victory shooting 43.4 percent which was their second worst shooting percentage at home this season. They also allowed the Kings to tie the game after leading by as many as 20 points last Tuesday but they have had little trouble holding on against the Milwaukee Bucks going for their 22nd straight home win over the Bucks tonight. Phoenix has scored at least 120 points in each of the last four overall meetings against Milwaukee and the Bucks won't stand much of a chance if their play doesn't dramatically improve from last night's butt whipping by the Lakers 95-77. Milwaukee shot 34.1 percent and scored only eight points in the opening quarter while Brandon Jennings scored 10 points, the only starter in double figures. Starting guard Michael Redd left the game with a sore left knee and is scheduled to undergo an MRI today in Phoenix and with Redd out, it increases the pressure on Jennings who is the Bucks' leading scorer at 18.3. Jennings has slumped recently scoring 24 total points in the last three games while shooting 23.5 percent. Stoudemire has dominated averaging 25.0 points and 9.0 rebounds in his last three home games against the Bucks and the Bucks are facing the Suns on a bad night in which they are rested coming off a loss on Friday while the Bucks have to play a back to back . The Suns had a meeting to discuss maintaining their intensity as a team throughout 48 minutes which means another blowout loss for the Bucks' The Suns have scored at least 120 points against the Bucks and the Bucks will be lucky to score 90 against the Suns tonight.
Take Suns -9
Jimmy Moore
Cleveland @ Golden State
Pick: Golden State +6
The Cavs will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights all on the road and coming off of 2 tough venues playing at Denver and Portland. Golden State is a running team that will be very happy to play very up tempo and tire out the Cavs who will not be in full focus for this one.
MATT *****
New Mexico State @ Idaho
PICK: New Mexico St +8
New Mexico St. is playing excellent right now yet it is getting dogged in this matchup pretty heavily. The Aggies have won six of their last seven games and are off to a 2-1 start in the WAC thanks to a big road win on Saturday at Boise St. This team is nearly back to full strength as the return of forward Wendell McKines, who was ineligible for the first semester, has been big. He has been back for the last sis games with New Mexico St. going 5-1 in those contests. McKines was the leading rebounder in the conference last season and he is averaging 13.8 ppg and 9.0 rpg. After starting 1-4 on the road, the Aggies have won two straight road games. On the other side, Idaho is getting a lot of respect and what is supposed to be one of the best years in recent memory for the program has not exactly gotten off to a great start. The Vandals have lost two straight games and are 3-5 following a 4-1 start to the season. They are 4-1 at home with the first loss coming on Saturday against Louisiana Tech in a game they were actually getting a point. Now they head into the role of favorites with a swing of nine points and that is simply too big of a shift from one game to the next when the opposition has not changed drastically. One big issue that cannot be ignored to bring up is the Idaho free throw shooting as it is hitting 63.6 percent on the season but that drops to 60.8 percent at home and over the last five games it is a dismal 51.9 percent. That is 22.1 percent less than what the Aggies are hitting over the same stretch. The Aggies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while the Vandals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 3* New Mexico St. Aggies
Tom Freese
San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: San Jose Sharks
San Jose is 6-1 their last 7 road games and they are 9-2 their last 11 games overall. The Sharks are 29-11-1 off a home loss by 3 or more goals and they are 15-7 vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 8-20 their last 28 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of over 60% and they are 2-6 their last 8 Conference games. The Kings are 7-15 on Monday and they are 5-13 their last 18 games vs. the Sharks. PLAY ON SAN JOSE -
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Hornets/76ers UNDER 199
The Hornets have been an Unders machine and so has this matchup. The Under is 10-3 in the Hornets' last 13 overall and 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia. With the Hornets having just played yesterday, they shouldn't have the energy to post a big number here. In fact, the Under is 5-1-1 in the Hornets' last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day, and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Under.
Stephen Nover
Toronto at INDIANA -1'
Indiana's offense should pick up again now that Danny Granger and Troy Murphy, its two best players, are healthy.
This will be Granger's third game back from a heel injury. The rust should just about be off. He scored 25 points in his last game. Murphy registered 15 points and 15 rebounds in his last game on Saturday after missing four games because of a sprained left ankle.
The Raptors' defense has improved lately, which means it has gone from absolutely terrible to merely very bad. Toronto is 37-18-1 (67 percent) to the over in its last 56 road games.
Indiana, of course, doesn't play any defense. If you discount holding Orlando to 90 points, the Pacers have given up an average of 114.5 points in their last eight games. The Pacers have yielded at least 108 points in all but two of their last nine games.
Toronto has the offense to take advantage with Chris Bosh playing his best ball and Jose Calderon back from injury to shore up the point guard spot.
2? TORONTO RAPTORS
Brett Atkins
Two straight college hoops freebies have rolled in after getting another winner on Sunday as Tennessee pulled off the outright upset at home of top-ranked Kansas. Today I'm loving Villanova getting points at Louisville in Big East action.
I’m grabbing the points but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Villanova win this one outright at Freedom Hall in Louisville.
Villanova has won five straight and their only loss this season came at Temple in mid-December, a tough chore for any team in the country. The Wildcats beat Marquette on Saturday, 78-76, but came up short as a nine-point home favorite.
Villanova scores almost 90 points a game and they shoot 53 percent from the floor. They’ve got a great leader in Scottie Reynolds and some talent up-and-down the roster. They come in on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on Mondays and 8-3 after a straight-up winner.
Louisville have opened Big East play with a 3-0 mark, but this team just can’t score enough points to beat the Wildcats. They’ve averaged just 76.2 points per game in the last five games and they beat St. John’s on Saturday, 75-68, but didn’t cover the 13-point spread.
The Cardinals have won and covered three straight matchups with Villanova and cashed in five straight dating back to 2006. Louisville has failed to cover in five of seven after a victory. I like the Wildcats to go in there and play the Cardinals tough. Grab the points and play Villanova.
4? VILLANOVA
Jay McNeil
I picked up yet another win Sunday with my Bonus Play, taking the Clippers to beat up on Miami. That gave me a 13-6 record over the past 19 days, and I'm not about to slow down now!
I've got another NBA winner for you today, taking the red-hot Hornets as an underdog at Philadelphia. I'm not really sure why the 76ers are favored here. New Orleans has won six straight games, going 5-1 ATS, and Philly is just 4-12 at home this season.
David West is averaging 20.3 ppg during the winning streak for the Hornets, who are 3-0 on the road in 2010.
New Orleans is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games against the Sixers, who are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games.
4? NEW ORLEANS
Charley Sutton
Bad call yesterday as the Ravens and Patriots go Over the Total, unlike I what I said would go down.
That’s fine because I’m delivering tonight as I’m taking the Golden State Warriors at home against the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers.
Coming into this game, even though the Warriors are just 11-24 SU this season, the team has been a money maker, going 19-15-1 ATS this season.
At home, the Warriors are 9-5 ATS and have covered in 3 straight in Oakland. In fact, Golden State rides into tonight’s game red-hot as a money maker, having covered in 7 of its last 8 games, including three straight covers overall.
Now the Warriors battle a Cavaliers team that’s covered in just 2 of its last 6 games and is just 1-2 ATS its last 3 road games.
Keep in mind, also, over the last few seasons the Warriors have gone 3-1 ATS their last 4 games against the Cavs, including a cover when these two met in Cleveland on Nov. 17.
The Warriors will cash in again tonight against the struggling Cavaliers.
3 ? WARRIORS
Joel Tyson
NBA Bonus Play for Monday, as I am looking for the back-to-back days on the court to hurt the visiting Raptors.
Toronto comes to Indiana with an 8-12 spread mark on the road this year, and while the Pacers have been struggling of late, this series has been dominated by the host, and I expect the trend to continue on Monday.
The home team has won and covered the last 5 series meetings, and 7 of the last 10 both straight up, and against the spread.
Toronto still too inconsistent on the road to be trusted.
Take Indiana.
1? INDIANA
Chuck O'Brien
Scored a nice 5? free winner with the Cardinals in NFL playoff action on Sunday. Now let’s take Oklahoma State in a virtual pick-em situation at Oklahoma in Monday’s college hoops action.
These rivalry games can be tough to handicap at times, but this line seems way out of whack to me even though the Cowboys are the road team. Oklahoma State is off to a 13-2 start to this season and likely will crack the Top 25 today, and it tipped off the Big 12 season with an 81-52 annihilation of Texas Tech as a seven-point favorite on Saturday. On the other hand, the Sooners are just 9-6 SU and 4-8 ATS on the year and have dropped three of their last four. That includes Saturday’s disastrous performance at Baylor in which Oklahoma lost 91-60 as a seven-point road underdog.
Oklahoma is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but the two best wins came against opponents (Arizona and Arkansas) that are way down this year. The Sooners have suffered four double-digit losses this season (three in the last four games, broken up only by a home win over Maryland-Eastern Shore). And while the Sooners have been a pointspread nightmare lately (four straight non-covers overall; four straight non-covers in Big 12 play), Oklahoma State is on an incredible 17-3-1 ATS tear, including cashing in 10 of its last 11 conference games. The Cowboys also played the Sooners (a Top 5 team) tough last year, losing by four in Norman as a nine-point underdog then pulling an upset as a five-point pup in the Big 12 tournament.
3? OKLAHOMA STATE
Dave Price
1 Unit on Utah Jazz -7
Tough spot for a Miami club that just played last night as it faces a Jazz team that is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Plus, Utah should be especially motivated in this spot against a team that has had its number of late. The Jazz fell 70-80 in Miami last month, and I fully expect them to pay the Heat back here. Revenge has been a strong motivating factor for the Jazz as they are 15-5 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 107.6 to 96.7. Lay the points.
Spartan
Villanova +3 vs Louisville
I'll gladly support a play here on the Wildcats getting points, even at Louisville. Villanova at 14-1 is shaping up to be a serious contender come march for a deep run. Sure, they got into a scrap with Marquette this weekend and narrowly escaped with a 78-76 victory but the point is they prevailed and held off a good Marquette team giving the Wildcats their best shot. Nova has been cashing tickets for it's backer at an impressive 10-4 clip against the number. Rick Pitino's Cardinals have been a losing proposition for bettors thus far and I am predicting that trend will stay in play at the conclusion of tonight. Free release for Monday on the Villanova Wildcats getting the 3 points guys!
Larry Ness
Oklahoma +1 vs Oklahoma St.
The Sooners knew life was going to be tough without Blake Griffin (22.7-8.1), who left early and was the No. 1 pick in the NBA last April. Also gone from LY's 30-win, Elite 8 team were Griffin's brother Taylor (9.6-5.8) and PG Johnson (8.6-3.9 APG). However, Warren (17.8-3.3-4.4) and Crocker (13.6-7.1) were expected to lead the way with three talented freshman coming in. "Tiny" Gallon (11.9-8.6) is part of the starting lineup with guards Mason-Griffin (10.1-4.9 APG) and Pledger (7.7) often coming off the bench. Junior Cade Davis (8.1) is in the starting lineup these days but the Sooners are just 9-6 heading into this game with in-state rival Oklahoma St. The Sooners were embarrassed in their conference opener on Saturday, losing at Baylor. Oklahoma had won 30 in a row vs Baylor before falling in Waco for the first time since 1954. The Cowboys opened their Big 12 schedule in convincing fashion on Saturday, as they trounced nationally-ranked Texas Tech 81-52. The Cowboys improved to 13-2 overall and are led by big guards Anderson (21.9-5.9) and Muonelo (12.0-5.3). The 6-7 Moses (10.5-9.5) came into his own last year when the 6-11 Thomas left school after seven games and this year is getting some help inside from the 6-8 Pilgrim (7.6-6.4), who came from Kentucky by way of Hampton University. Page (10.3) and freshman guard Penn (8.1-2.8 APG) are trying to replace graduated PG Eaton (14.3-5.7 APG) plus the Cowboys miss Harris' 13.9 PPG and 4.8 RPG he gave them LY as another big 6-5 guard. All in all, Travis Ford's team has been fairly impressive. Oklahoma won both regular season meetings LY but the Cowboys knocked off the Sooners in the Big 12 tourney. This is the first meeting this year and with the Sooners coming off that embarrassing game in Waco, I expect an excellent effort from Oklahoma. Let's also note that OSU could be flying a little too high off its win over Texas Tech. Note that the Sooners are 7-0 at home this year, winning on average by 81.0-to-62.3 PPG. Take the home team.
Craig Davis
Tonight's Bonus Play is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the number in Boston. The oddsmakers are just begging us to take Boston... and why not? They just lost in Atlanta a few nights ago but were competitive for three-and-a-half quarters. You'd be thinking Boston at home on a revenge game might be listed around 6 or so... but that's not the case... and I'm not falling for the trap. Boston could easily cover this number if they came to play, but I just don't think they matchup that well without Kevin Garnett on the floor and I doubt he'll be back for this game. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith are absolutely going to light up the Boston night tonight and I'll be surprised if they don't score105 or more points tonight. Atlanta is younger and appears to be more athletic right now, and without their emotional leader to give them a boost tonight, Atlanta should be able to take full advantage. I like how Atlanta hit free throws in their last game and they're starting to rebound the ball too. I'm siding with the road team to get the outright sweep in these first two games. Take Atlanta.
2? ATLANTA
Rocketman
Toronto @ Indiana
Play: Toronto +2.5
Toronto is 19-18 overall this year while Indiana is 11-25 on the season. Toronto is 7-1 SU and ATS against Central Division opponents this year. Indiana is 2-9 ATS this year when the total is 210 or higher. Toronto is 8-2 SU their last 10 games overall. Indiana is 2-11 SU their last 13 games overall. Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Central. Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Pacers are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Pacers are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a SU loss. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!
Hollywood Sports
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Boston Celtics
Coach Doc Rivers has his team primed to take it to Atlanta on Monday. After the Celtics 93-85 loss to the Hawks on Friday (their second loss to Atlanta this season), Rivers had this to say about how his team compares to Atlanta: "I thought the Hawks were more physical than us, and they really attacked us, especially in the second half ... I thought we played well early, but then they took over the game from there. Right now you have to give it to them. They are the better team." The Celtics bounced back on Sunday to defeat the Raptors by a 114-107 score. While the Celtics will likely still be without Kevin Garnett with his hyperextended knee, Rasheed Wallace filled in nicely at power forward against Toronto by scoring 29 points. Now the Celtics wait for Atlanta at home where they enjoy an 11-4 record with a +9.3 net point differential with a 49.6% shooting percentage and a 44.4% defensive field goal mark. While the Hawks are 9-9 on the road, they do have a -0.2 net point differential away from home. Atlanta has failed to cover in their last seven road games as an underdog of under five points. The Celtics have covered their last six games as a favorite of under five points. Atlanta was destroyed by the Magic on Saturday by a whopping 32 points. That game may have done enough to rattle Atlanta's confidence as they now face a Celtics' teams that has been called out by their coach to take care of business in this game. Lay the points with the Celtics.
TEDDY COVERS
New Orleans Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers
PICK: New Orleans Hornets +2
I don’t make many bets based solely on trends and angles. That being said, when the Philadelphia 76ers are playing at the Wachovia Center, there’s only one bet to make – supporting their opponent. The numbers don’t lie. Philadelphia is 4-12 SU, 2-14 ATS at home this year, and one of those two ATS covers came back on opening night. When a team goes 1-14 ATS at home over a ten week span, it’s no accident – there is a legitimate home court disadvantage for this team, playing in front of lackluster, lethargic crowds on a floor where opponent after opponent is convinced that this is the spot to pick up a coveted road victory.
While Philadelphia is a pointspread disaster area at home, the New Orleans Hornets are headed in the other direction. The Hornets started the season by going 2-13 SU in their first 15 road games, a prevailing trend similar to Philly’s, making them virtually unbackable on the highway. But in the last two weeks, New Orleans has won six straight, including all three previous tries as a road underdog at Utah, Oklahoma City and Washington. The Hornets have swept this season series in each of the last two years, facing better 76ers teams than this one…. 2* Take the Hornets.
Bobby Maxwell,
Atlanta at BOSTON (-3') By Featured Handicapper
I improved to 47-19 with FREE selections, including a 24-5 run over the last 29 days, after watching Tennessee win outright as home 'dogs against Kansas on Sunday. Today I have an NBA winner for you as I play the Celtics at home against the Hawks.Jump on this number early as the line is going up as this game gets closer to tip-off. The Celtics and Hawks meet for the second time in four days but this time it’s in Boston and the Celtics are going to take advantage of a shabby Atlanta road team and win this one easily.Atlanta beat the Celtics 93-85 on Friday night, covering as a 3 ½-point home favorite. Then the Hawks went to Orlando on Saturday and got drilled 113-81 as a 3 ½-point underdog. In spite of the win over the Celtics, Atlanta has been struggling mightily lately, losing five of their last seven (3-4 ATS).
The Hawks score just 97.9 points a game on the road while scoring 103.4 overall this season. Over their last five games, they are managing just 95.2 points a game. Meanwhile, Boston gives up just 93.4 points a game at home, a far cry from the 103.6 they have been giving up over the last five games.
The home team has won 10 of the previous 13 battles between these two and Boston is 5-2 ATS in the last seven played at BankNorth Garden. Look for the Celtics to get this one by 8 tonight. Play Boston.
4? BOSTON
Karl Garrett
Milwaukee at PHOENIX (-9') By Karl Garrett, Featured Handicapper
With the Bucks having just been on court last night at the Lakers, look for them to get whipped up on tonight in Phoenix.
The Suns did not suit up yesterday, and they are averaging right around 115 whopping points per game at home where they have covered 11 of their 18 games.
Phoenix did take it on the chin Friday night at home against Miami, so expect them to come out in an ornery mood this Monday night.
The Suns have won 6 in a row, and 9 of the last 10 series meetings against the Bucks, and they have covered in the last 3 series meetings
The tired Bucks get blasted here.
Lay the wood.
4? PHOENIX
VEGAS EXPERTS
Villanova at Louisville
Considering that Villanova is playing with triple revenge and that Louisville has lost outright as double-digit chalk to the likes of Charlotte and Western Carolina, we don't know what the oddsmakers are thinking here in installing the Cardinals as a small home favorite. Both of those aformentioned losses occured here at Freedom Hall. Villanova has lost just one time all season and is 25-15 ATS coming off a straight up win.
Play on: Villanova
Marc Lawrence Bonus Play
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
The Celtics return to Beantown to host the Hawks in a matchup of two Eastern Conference powers Monday night. Atlanta limps in off a 32-point loss at Orlando Saturday night while Boston snapped a 2-game losing skid with a 7-point win at Toronto yesterday afternoon. With the Celtics just 1-10 ATS as home chalk on Mondays, look for the Hawks to get healthy here tonight. Grab the points with Atlanta.
Play on: Atlanta
Frank Jordan Bonus Play
Villanova vs. Louisville
Play: Villanova +3
There was a big upset in college hoops Sunday as number 1 Kansas lost at Tennessee. Villanova number 3 in the country will look to continue to play well on the road, where they are 3-1, to stay hot and maybe contend for that open number 1 spot. Louisville is no push over as they have a 12-4 record and are 10-2 at home. Look for the game in the mid 70's into the low 80's as the Wildcats continue to roll winning 83-78
JIM FEIST COMP
TORONTO RAPTORS / INDIANA PACERS
TAKE: OVER
Toronto playing some of its best ball of the season he Raptors saw their three game win streak snapped on Sunday by the Celtics, 114-107. The Raptors had won three straight games and eight of the last nine before Sunday's setback. The loss really didn't come as any surprise to the Raptors, who have now lost seven straight to Boston. Still, it was just the club's second loss in their last nine games (both coming at the hands of Boston). Indiana finds itself in last place in the East's Central standings with a 11-25 mark. The Pacers are also just 14-21 ATS on the season. The Pacers defense has been a big part of the bad season, as they are 24th in the league in points allowed (103.92). However, unlike the Raptors who also rank poorly in points allowed, the Pacers also rank 20th in points scored (98) compared to Toronto's 7th ranking (103.24). The Pacers finally got some good news with the return of Danny Granger to the lineup Friday against Minnesota. Granger, who averaged 24 ppg, had been out since Dec 5. The club was just 5-11 without the All-Star. Unfortunately for the Pacers, Granger's return just resulted in a higher scoring loss to the T'Wolves, 116-109, and then another loss on Saturday to the Thunder, 108-102. With Granger's return and two poor defenses, we look for a lot of points here on Monday. Take the OVER and enjoy the offensive show!!
Dave Cokin Comp
(729) NEW MEXICO STATE
(730) IDAHO
Take "(729) NEW MEXICO STATE
Arthur Ralph Sports
379 - 269 run 58 %
Bonus Play Mon Boise St + 4
Steve Merril Bonus Play
NCAA-B | Jan 11
Hawaii vs. Utah State Utah State
-18+100
Utah St was the preseason WAC favorite, but after opening their conference schedule with two losses, they’ve got a lot of makeup work to do. The Aggies haven’t played since a 22-point blowout loss at LouiSIAna Tech last Monday night, and they’ve had six full days to get ready for tonight’s game. “It’s always tough when you come home from a loss and you have to wait four to five days to play again,” Aggie guard/forward Pooh Williams said. “It gives you a lot of time to get better. The coaches have been really on us in practice; everybody has been getting after it. So, I feel we have gotten a lot better this week.”
The Aggies play on a strong home court, and being back in their comfort zone should give them a nice boost tonight. “It’s really nice to be home and not have to sleep in four different hotels, be in our own beds, but we don’t have an easy task in Hawaii,” Tai Wesley said. “They’re very capable. We are not overlooking them at all.”
There are a few reasons why this selection isn’t rated stronger. Hawaii is somewhat of a bad match-up for Utah St because they are a bigger team that plays a physical style of basketball. “Their size and athletic ability jump out at you,” said USU head coach Stew Morrill when asked what concerns him most about tonight’s opponent. “They are very good on the boards, play very physical. We’ve played Hawaii enough to know they certainly are capable of beating us.”
Also is the fact that Hawaii has played in a lot of close games this season. Of their 8 losses, only one has come by more than 18 points which shows that they have ‘hang around’ capability because of their stud guard Roderick Flemings who is usually the best player on the court in the majority of WAC games. And you just don’t know what team will show up tonight. “They are a little like us right now, a little up and down,” Morrill said. “When you face a team like that, you hope to catch them on a down note, rather than an up note.”
PREFERRED PRO PLAYS BEST BET FREE PICK UNDER 213 MILWAUKEE @ PHOENIX
LT Profits
Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz
The Miami Heat and the Utah Jazz combined for only 150 points in an 80-70 Heat win in Miami in December, but we are looking for this rematch to be played at a totally different pace.
The Jazz play at a much faster pace when they play at home, feeding off of what is usually a frenzied crowd. Utah is averaging a whopping 104.0 points per game at home while shooting a sensational 50.7 percent from the floor. At the same time, because of that frenetic pace, they are also allowing an average of 97.2 points here, and that combined average of 201.7 is nearly 10 points higher than this posted total.
The Utah offense is certainly in good current form, as they are coming off of a 111-93 road upset of the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday. The Jazz also put up 114 points the last time they played here at home last Wednesday.
The Heat are also playing relatively high scoring games on the road this season, but it is for the wrong reason, as their defense has been quite generous away from home, surrendering 100.6 points per game. Combine that with the 97.9 points they are averaging offensively away from home, and Miami road games are producing 198.5 points, more than six points higher than this posted total.
So why is this posted total as low as it is? Well, the Heat do have a tendency to have nights where they cannot shoot the ball in the ocean, and one such occasion came yesterday in a 94-84 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center. Still, they do usually rebound off of poor shooting games like that, as only twice this season has Miami been held to under 90 points in back-to-back games.
Finally, it appears that playing on consecutive nights usually has an adverse effect on the Heat defense, as they are allowing 102.5 points per game when playing with no rest this season. Thus, we would not be shocked if Utah puts up around 110 tonight, virtually assuring that this game goes Over.
Pick: Heat/Jazz Over 192
EZWINNERS
Golden State Warriors +5.5
The Warriors have played the Cavs very tough at home the last three seasons. Cleveland is 3-0 in those game but only by a combined seven points. The Warriors are playing pretty well now that their big guys are healthy and they have covered seven out of their last eight games. This is the second of back to back games for Cleveland and their third road game in four nights. The tempo that Golden State likes to play at could become a factor for a road weary team. Cleveland is only 5-7 against the spread in the second of back to back games. Take the points.
JR TIPS
Bucks at Suns
The Phoenix Suns have not been able to protect big leads recently. The Suns jumped out to a 13 point advantage in the first half against the Heat but lost 109-105 on Friday and 2 nights earlier they blew a 16-point lead against Houston before pulling out the victory shooting 43.4 percent which was their second worst shooting percentage at home this season. They also allowed the Kings to tie the game after leading by as many as 20 points last Tuesday but they have had little trouble holding on against the Milwaukee Bucks going for their 22nd straight home win over the Bucks tonight. Phoenix has scored at least 120 points in each of the last four overall meetings against Milwaukee and the Bucks won't stand much of a chance if their play doesn't dramatically improve from last night's butt whipping by the Lakers 95-77. Milwaukee shot 34.1 percent and scored only eight points in the opening quarter while Brandon Jennings scored 10 points, the only starter in double figures. Starting guard Michael Redd left the game with a sore left knee and is scheduled to undergo an MRI today in Phoenix and with Redd out, it increases the pressure on Jennings who is the Bucks' leading scorer at 18.3. Jennings has slumped recently scoring 24 total points in the last three games while shooting 23.5 percent. Stoudemire has dominated averaging 25.0 points and 9.0 rebounds in his last three home games against the Bucks and the Bucks are facing the Suns on a bad night in which they are rested coming off a loss on Friday while the Bucks have to play a back to back . The Suns had a meeting to discuss maintaining their intensity as a team throughout 48 minutes which means another blowout loss for the Bucks' The Suns have scored at least 120 points against the Bucks and the Bucks will be lucky to score 90 against the Suns tonight.
Take Suns -9
Jimmy Moore
Cleveland @ Golden State
Pick: Golden State +6
The Cavs will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights all on the road and coming off of 2 tough venues playing at Denver and Portland. Golden State is a running team that will be very happy to play very up tempo and tire out the Cavs who will not be in full focus for this one.
MATT *****
New Mexico State @ Idaho
PICK: New Mexico St +8
New Mexico St. is playing excellent right now yet it is getting dogged in this matchup pretty heavily. The Aggies have won six of their last seven games and are off to a 2-1 start in the WAC thanks to a big road win on Saturday at Boise St. This team is nearly back to full strength as the return of forward Wendell McKines, who was ineligible for the first semester, has been big. He has been back for the last sis games with New Mexico St. going 5-1 in those contests. McKines was the leading rebounder in the conference last season and he is averaging 13.8 ppg and 9.0 rpg. After starting 1-4 on the road, the Aggies have won two straight road games. On the other side, Idaho is getting a lot of respect and what is supposed to be one of the best years in recent memory for the program has not exactly gotten off to a great start. The Vandals have lost two straight games and are 3-5 following a 4-1 start to the season. They are 4-1 at home with the first loss coming on Saturday against Louisiana Tech in a game they were actually getting a point. Now they head into the role of favorites with a swing of nine points and that is simply too big of a shift from one game to the next when the opposition has not changed drastically. One big issue that cannot be ignored to bring up is the Idaho free throw shooting as it is hitting 63.6 percent on the season but that drops to 60.8 percent at home and over the last five games it is a dismal 51.9 percent. That is 22.1 percent less than what the Aggies are hitting over the same stretch. The Aggies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while the Vandals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 3* New Mexico St. Aggies
Tom Freese
San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: San Jose Sharks
San Jose is 6-1 their last 7 road games and they are 9-2 their last 11 games overall. The Sharks are 29-11-1 off a home loss by 3 or more goals and they are 15-7 vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 8-20 their last 28 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of over 60% and they are 2-6 their last 8 Conference games. The Kings are 7-15 on Monday and they are 5-13 their last 18 games vs. the Sharks. PLAY ON SAN JOSE -
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Hornets/76ers UNDER 199
The Hornets have been an Unders machine and so has this matchup. The Under is 10-3 in the Hornets' last 13 overall and 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia. With the Hornets having just played yesterday, they shouldn't have the energy to post a big number here. In fact, the Under is 5-1-1 in the Hornets' last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day, and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Under.
Stephen Nover
Toronto at INDIANA -1'
Indiana's offense should pick up again now that Danny Granger and Troy Murphy, its two best players, are healthy.
This will be Granger's third game back from a heel injury. The rust should just about be off. He scored 25 points in his last game. Murphy registered 15 points and 15 rebounds in his last game on Saturday after missing four games because of a sprained left ankle.
The Raptors' defense has improved lately, which means it has gone from absolutely terrible to merely very bad. Toronto is 37-18-1 (67 percent) to the over in its last 56 road games.
Indiana, of course, doesn't play any defense. If you discount holding Orlando to 90 points, the Pacers have given up an average of 114.5 points in their last eight games. The Pacers have yielded at least 108 points in all but two of their last nine games.
Toronto has the offense to take advantage with Chris Bosh playing his best ball and Jose Calderon back from injury to shore up the point guard spot.
2? TORONTO RAPTORS
Brett Atkins
Two straight college hoops freebies have rolled in after getting another winner on Sunday as Tennessee pulled off the outright upset at home of top-ranked Kansas. Today I'm loving Villanova getting points at Louisville in Big East action.
I’m grabbing the points but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Villanova win this one outright at Freedom Hall in Louisville.
Villanova has won five straight and their only loss this season came at Temple in mid-December, a tough chore for any team in the country. The Wildcats beat Marquette on Saturday, 78-76, but came up short as a nine-point home favorite.
Villanova scores almost 90 points a game and they shoot 53 percent from the floor. They’ve got a great leader in Scottie Reynolds and some talent up-and-down the roster. They come in on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on Mondays and 8-3 after a straight-up winner.
Louisville have opened Big East play with a 3-0 mark, but this team just can’t score enough points to beat the Wildcats. They’ve averaged just 76.2 points per game in the last five games and they beat St. John’s on Saturday, 75-68, but didn’t cover the 13-point spread.
The Cardinals have won and covered three straight matchups with Villanova and cashed in five straight dating back to 2006. Louisville has failed to cover in five of seven after a victory. I like the Wildcats to go in there and play the Cardinals tough. Grab the points and play Villanova.
4? VILLANOVA
Jay McNeil
I picked up yet another win Sunday with my Bonus Play, taking the Clippers to beat up on Miami. That gave me a 13-6 record over the past 19 days, and I'm not about to slow down now!
I've got another NBA winner for you today, taking the red-hot Hornets as an underdog at Philadelphia. I'm not really sure why the 76ers are favored here. New Orleans has won six straight games, going 5-1 ATS, and Philly is just 4-12 at home this season.
David West is averaging 20.3 ppg during the winning streak for the Hornets, who are 3-0 on the road in 2010.
New Orleans is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games against the Sixers, who are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games.
4? NEW ORLEANS
Charley Sutton
Bad call yesterday as the Ravens and Patriots go Over the Total, unlike I what I said would go down.
That’s fine because I’m delivering tonight as I’m taking the Golden State Warriors at home against the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers.
Coming into this game, even though the Warriors are just 11-24 SU this season, the team has been a money maker, going 19-15-1 ATS this season.
At home, the Warriors are 9-5 ATS and have covered in 3 straight in Oakland. In fact, Golden State rides into tonight’s game red-hot as a money maker, having covered in 7 of its last 8 games, including three straight covers overall.
Now the Warriors battle a Cavaliers team that’s covered in just 2 of its last 6 games and is just 1-2 ATS its last 3 road games.
Keep in mind, also, over the last few seasons the Warriors have gone 3-1 ATS their last 4 games against the Cavs, including a cover when these two met in Cleveland on Nov. 17.
The Warriors will cash in again tonight against the struggling Cavaliers.
3 ? WARRIORS
Joel Tyson
NBA Bonus Play for Monday, as I am looking for the back-to-back days on the court to hurt the visiting Raptors.
Toronto comes to Indiana with an 8-12 spread mark on the road this year, and while the Pacers have been struggling of late, this series has been dominated by the host, and I expect the trend to continue on Monday.
The home team has won and covered the last 5 series meetings, and 7 of the last 10 both straight up, and against the spread.
Toronto still too inconsistent on the road to be trusted.
Take Indiana.
1? INDIANA
Chuck O'Brien
Scored a nice 5? free winner with the Cardinals in NFL playoff action on Sunday. Now let’s take Oklahoma State in a virtual pick-em situation at Oklahoma in Monday’s college hoops action.
These rivalry games can be tough to handicap at times, but this line seems way out of whack to me even though the Cowboys are the road team. Oklahoma State is off to a 13-2 start to this season and likely will crack the Top 25 today, and it tipped off the Big 12 season with an 81-52 annihilation of Texas Tech as a seven-point favorite on Saturday. On the other hand, the Sooners are just 9-6 SU and 4-8 ATS on the year and have dropped three of their last four. That includes Saturday’s disastrous performance at Baylor in which Oklahoma lost 91-60 as a seven-point road underdog.
Oklahoma is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but the two best wins came against opponents (Arizona and Arkansas) that are way down this year. The Sooners have suffered four double-digit losses this season (three in the last four games, broken up only by a home win over Maryland-Eastern Shore). And while the Sooners have been a pointspread nightmare lately (four straight non-covers overall; four straight non-covers in Big 12 play), Oklahoma State is on an incredible 17-3-1 ATS tear, including cashing in 10 of its last 11 conference games. The Cowboys also played the Sooners (a Top 5 team) tough last year, losing by four in Norman as a nine-point underdog then pulling an upset as a five-point pup in the Big 12 tournament.
3? OKLAHOMA STATE
Dave Price
1 Unit on Utah Jazz -7
Tough spot for a Miami club that just played last night as it faces a Jazz team that is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Plus, Utah should be especially motivated in this spot against a team that has had its number of late. The Jazz fell 70-80 in Miami last month, and I fully expect them to pay the Heat back here. Revenge has been a strong motivating factor for the Jazz as they are 15-5 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 107.6 to 96.7. Lay the points.
Spartan
Villanova +3 vs Louisville
I'll gladly support a play here on the Wildcats getting points, even at Louisville. Villanova at 14-1 is shaping up to be a serious contender come march for a deep run. Sure, they got into a scrap with Marquette this weekend and narrowly escaped with a 78-76 victory but the point is they prevailed and held off a good Marquette team giving the Wildcats their best shot. Nova has been cashing tickets for it's backer at an impressive 10-4 clip against the number. Rick Pitino's Cardinals have been a losing proposition for bettors thus far and I am predicting that trend will stay in play at the conclusion of tonight. Free release for Monday on the Villanova Wildcats getting the 3 points guys!
Larry Ness
Oklahoma +1 vs Oklahoma St.
The Sooners knew life was going to be tough without Blake Griffin (22.7-8.1), who left early and was the No. 1 pick in the NBA last April. Also gone from LY's 30-win, Elite 8 team were Griffin's brother Taylor (9.6-5.8) and PG Johnson (8.6-3.9 APG). However, Warren (17.8-3.3-4.4) and Crocker (13.6-7.1) were expected to lead the way with three talented freshman coming in. "Tiny" Gallon (11.9-8.6) is part of the starting lineup with guards Mason-Griffin (10.1-4.9 APG) and Pledger (7.7) often coming off the bench. Junior Cade Davis (8.1) is in the starting lineup these days but the Sooners are just 9-6 heading into this game with in-state rival Oklahoma St. The Sooners were embarrassed in their conference opener on Saturday, losing at Baylor. Oklahoma had won 30 in a row vs Baylor before falling in Waco for the first time since 1954. The Cowboys opened their Big 12 schedule in convincing fashion on Saturday, as they trounced nationally-ranked Texas Tech 81-52. The Cowboys improved to 13-2 overall and are led by big guards Anderson (21.9-5.9) and Muonelo (12.0-5.3). The 6-7 Moses (10.5-9.5) came into his own last year when the 6-11 Thomas left school after seven games and this year is getting some help inside from the 6-8 Pilgrim (7.6-6.4), who came from Kentucky by way of Hampton University. Page (10.3) and freshman guard Penn (8.1-2.8 APG) are trying to replace graduated PG Eaton (14.3-5.7 APG) plus the Cowboys miss Harris' 13.9 PPG and 4.8 RPG he gave them LY as another big 6-5 guard. All in all, Travis Ford's team has been fairly impressive. Oklahoma won both regular season meetings LY but the Cowboys knocked off the Sooners in the Big 12 tourney. This is the first meeting this year and with the Sooners coming off that embarrassing game in Waco, I expect an excellent effort from Oklahoma. Let's also note that OSU could be flying a little too high off its win over Texas Tech. Note that the Sooners are 7-0 at home this year, winning on average by 81.0-to-62.3 PPG. Take the home team.
Craig Davis
Tonight's Bonus Play is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the number in Boston. The oddsmakers are just begging us to take Boston... and why not? They just lost in Atlanta a few nights ago but were competitive for three-and-a-half quarters. You'd be thinking Boston at home on a revenge game might be listed around 6 or so... but that's not the case... and I'm not falling for the trap. Boston could easily cover this number if they came to play, but I just don't think they matchup that well without Kevin Garnett on the floor and I doubt he'll be back for this game. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith are absolutely going to light up the Boston night tonight and I'll be surprised if they don't score105 or more points tonight. Atlanta is younger and appears to be more athletic right now, and without their emotional leader to give them a boost tonight, Atlanta should be able to take full advantage. I like how Atlanta hit free throws in their last game and they're starting to rebound the ball too. I'm siding with the road team to get the outright sweep in these first two games. Take Atlanta.
2? ATLANTA
Rocketman
Toronto @ Indiana
Play: Toronto +2.5
Toronto is 19-18 overall this year while Indiana is 11-25 on the season. Toronto is 7-1 SU and ATS against Central Division opponents this year. Indiana is 2-9 ATS this year when the total is 210 or higher. Toronto is 8-2 SU their last 10 games overall. Indiana is 2-11 SU their last 13 games overall. Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Central. Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Pacers are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Pacers are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a SU loss. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!
Hollywood Sports
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Boston Celtics
Coach Doc Rivers has his team primed to take it to Atlanta on Monday. After the Celtics 93-85 loss to the Hawks on Friday (their second loss to Atlanta this season), Rivers had this to say about how his team compares to Atlanta: "I thought the Hawks were more physical than us, and they really attacked us, especially in the second half ... I thought we played well early, but then they took over the game from there. Right now you have to give it to them. They are the better team." The Celtics bounced back on Sunday to defeat the Raptors by a 114-107 score. While the Celtics will likely still be without Kevin Garnett with his hyperextended knee, Rasheed Wallace filled in nicely at power forward against Toronto by scoring 29 points. Now the Celtics wait for Atlanta at home where they enjoy an 11-4 record with a +9.3 net point differential with a 49.6% shooting percentage and a 44.4% defensive field goal mark. While the Hawks are 9-9 on the road, they do have a -0.2 net point differential away from home. Atlanta has failed to cover in their last seven road games as an underdog of under five points. The Celtics have covered their last six games as a favorite of under five points. Atlanta was destroyed by the Magic on Saturday by a whopping 32 points. That game may have done enough to rattle Atlanta's confidence as they now face a Celtics' teams that has been called out by their coach to take care of business in this game. Lay the points with the Celtics.
TEDDY COVERS
New Orleans Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers
PICK: New Orleans Hornets +2
I don’t make many bets based solely on trends and angles. That being said, when the Philadelphia 76ers are playing at the Wachovia Center, there’s only one bet to make – supporting their opponent. The numbers don’t lie. Philadelphia is 4-12 SU, 2-14 ATS at home this year, and one of those two ATS covers came back on opening night. When a team goes 1-14 ATS at home over a ten week span, it’s no accident – there is a legitimate home court disadvantage for this team, playing in front of lackluster, lethargic crowds on a floor where opponent after opponent is convinced that this is the spot to pick up a coveted road victory.
While Philadelphia is a pointspread disaster area at home, the New Orleans Hornets are headed in the other direction. The Hornets started the season by going 2-13 SU in their first 15 road games, a prevailing trend similar to Philly’s, making them virtually unbackable on the highway. But in the last two weeks, New Orleans has won six straight, including all three previous tries as a road underdog at Utah, Oklahoma City and Washington. The Hornets have swept this season series in each of the last two years, facing better 76ers teams than this one…. 2* Take the Hornets.
Bobby Maxwell,
Atlanta at BOSTON (-3') By Featured Handicapper
I improved to 47-19 with FREE selections, including a 24-5 run over the last 29 days, after watching Tennessee win outright as home 'dogs against Kansas on Sunday. Today I have an NBA winner for you as I play the Celtics at home against the Hawks.Jump on this number early as the line is going up as this game gets closer to tip-off. The Celtics and Hawks meet for the second time in four days but this time it’s in Boston and the Celtics are going to take advantage of a shabby Atlanta road team and win this one easily.Atlanta beat the Celtics 93-85 on Friday night, covering as a 3 ½-point home favorite. Then the Hawks went to Orlando on Saturday and got drilled 113-81 as a 3 ½-point underdog. In spite of the win over the Celtics, Atlanta has been struggling mightily lately, losing five of their last seven (3-4 ATS).
The Hawks score just 97.9 points a game on the road while scoring 103.4 overall this season. Over their last five games, they are managing just 95.2 points a game. Meanwhile, Boston gives up just 93.4 points a game at home, a far cry from the 103.6 they have been giving up over the last five games.
The home team has won 10 of the previous 13 battles between these two and Boston is 5-2 ATS in the last seven played at BankNorth Garden. Look for the Celtics to get this one by 8 tonight. Play Boston.
4? BOSTON
Karl Garrett
Milwaukee at PHOENIX (-9') By Karl Garrett, Featured Handicapper
With the Bucks having just been on court last night at the Lakers, look for them to get whipped up on tonight in Phoenix.
The Suns did not suit up yesterday, and they are averaging right around 115 whopping points per game at home where they have covered 11 of their 18 games.
Phoenix did take it on the chin Friday night at home against Miami, so expect them to come out in an ornery mood this Monday night.
The Suns have won 6 in a row, and 9 of the last 10 series meetings against the Bucks, and they have covered in the last 3 series meetings
The tired Bucks get blasted here.
Lay the wood.
4? PHOENIX
VEGAS EXPERTS
Villanova at Louisville
Considering that Villanova is playing with triple revenge and that Louisville has lost outright as double-digit chalk to the likes of Charlotte and Western Carolina, we don't know what the oddsmakers are thinking here in installing the Cardinals as a small home favorite. Both of those aformentioned losses occured here at Freedom Hall. Villanova has lost just one time all season and is 25-15 ATS coming off a straight up win.
Play on: Villanova
Marc Lawrence Bonus Play
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
The Celtics return to Beantown to host the Hawks in a matchup of two Eastern Conference powers Monday night. Atlanta limps in off a 32-point loss at Orlando Saturday night while Boston snapped a 2-game losing skid with a 7-point win at Toronto yesterday afternoon. With the Celtics just 1-10 ATS as home chalk on Mondays, look for the Hawks to get healthy here tonight. Grab the points with Atlanta.
Play on: Atlanta
Frank Jordan Bonus Play
Villanova vs. Louisville
Play: Villanova +3
There was a big upset in college hoops Sunday as number 1 Kansas lost at Tennessee. Villanova number 3 in the country will look to continue to play well on the road, where they are 3-1, to stay hot and maybe contend for that open number 1 spot. Louisville is no push over as they have a 12-4 record and are 10-2 at home. Look for the game in the mid 70's into the low 80's as the Wildcats continue to roll winning 83-78
JIM FEIST COMP
TORONTO RAPTORS / INDIANA PACERS
TAKE: OVER
Toronto playing some of its best ball of the season he Raptors saw their three game win streak snapped on Sunday by the Celtics, 114-107. The Raptors had won three straight games and eight of the last nine before Sunday's setback. The loss really didn't come as any surprise to the Raptors, who have now lost seven straight to Boston. Still, it was just the club's second loss in their last nine games (both coming at the hands of Boston). Indiana finds itself in last place in the East's Central standings with a 11-25 mark. The Pacers are also just 14-21 ATS on the season. The Pacers defense has been a big part of the bad season, as they are 24th in the league in points allowed (103.92). However, unlike the Raptors who also rank poorly in points allowed, the Pacers also rank 20th in points scored (98) compared to Toronto's 7th ranking (103.24). The Pacers finally got some good news with the return of Danny Granger to the lineup Friday against Minnesota. Granger, who averaged 24 ppg, had been out since Dec 5. The club was just 5-11 without the All-Star. Unfortunately for the Pacers, Granger's return just resulted in a higher scoring loss to the T'Wolves, 116-109, and then another loss on Saturday to the Thunder, 108-102. With Granger's return and two poor defenses, we look for a lot of points here on Monday. Take the OVER and enjoy the offensive show!!
Dave Cokin Comp
(729) NEW MEXICO STATE
(730) IDAHO
Take "(729) NEW MEXICO STATE
Arthur Ralph Sports
379 - 269 run 58 %
Bonus Play Mon Boise St + 4
Steve Merril Bonus Play
NCAA-B | Jan 11
Hawaii vs. Utah State Utah State
-18+100
Utah St was the preseason WAC favorite, but after opening their conference schedule with two losses, they’ve got a lot of makeup work to do. The Aggies haven’t played since a 22-point blowout loss at LouiSIAna Tech last Monday night, and they’ve had six full days to get ready for tonight’s game. “It’s always tough when you come home from a loss and you have to wait four to five days to play again,” Aggie guard/forward Pooh Williams said. “It gives you a lot of time to get better. The coaches have been really on us in practice; everybody has been getting after it. So, I feel we have gotten a lot better this week.”
The Aggies play on a strong home court, and being back in their comfort zone should give them a nice boost tonight. “It’s really nice to be home and not have to sleep in four different hotels, be in our own beds, but we don’t have an easy task in Hawaii,” Tai Wesley said. “They’re very capable. We are not overlooking them at all.”
There are a few reasons why this selection isn’t rated stronger. Hawaii is somewhat of a bad match-up for Utah St because they are a bigger team that plays a physical style of basketball. “Their size and athletic ability jump out at you,” said USU head coach Stew Morrill when asked what concerns him most about tonight’s opponent. “They are very good on the boards, play very physical. We’ve played Hawaii enough to know they certainly are capable of beating us.”
Also is the fact that Hawaii has played in a lot of close games this season. Of their 8 losses, only one has come by more than 18 points which shows that they have ‘hang around’ capability because of their stud guard Roderick Flemings who is usually the best player on the court in the majority of WAC games. And you just don’t know what team will show up tonight. “They are a little like us right now, a little up and down,” Morrill said. “When you face a team like that, you hope to catch them on a down note, rather than an up note.”
PREFERRED PRO PLAYS BEST BET FREE PICK UNDER 213 MILWAUKEE @ PHOENIX
Free picks
SportsAction365.com............. CBB - Utah State under 137
NSA Wins............................. NBA - Celtics over 192
VegasSI.com ........................CBB - Idaho -8
Charlies Sports..................... NBA - Suns under 211
GameDay Net. ......................CBB - Utah State -17.5
Gerry "Big Cat" Andino........... CBB - Bosie State +3.5
Vincent Pioli ........................CBB - Murray State over 129
Chicago Sports Group ............CBB - Oklahoma -1
Fred Callahan....................... NBA - Jazz 7.5
Tony Campone..................... CBB - Villanova +3
Jimmy Boyd
Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers (NBA) - Jan 11, 2010 7:05 PM EST
Play: Total: 216.5/-112 Over Pick Title: Bonus Play
Bonus Play 1 Unit on Raptors/Pacers OVER 216.5 The last two meetings between these two teams have seen the total score reach the 230’s, and I expect another high scoring one here. Toronto is 13-6 Over this season as it is allowing nearly 109 ppg, and its defense will suffer even more tonight as it just played Sunday against the Celtics. Defense suffers more than anything in back-to-back spots. Plus, we should see the explosive Pacers we are used to seeing as Danny Granger and Troy Murphy are now back in the lineup. The Over is 6-1 in the Pacers’ last 7 overall and 6-1 in the Raptors’ last 7 overall. We’ll bet the Over.
ALEX SMART
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics
PICK: Under190
If the Hawks could just figure out a way to stay out of Florida, they'd be in a lot better shape. Their L/2 ATS defeats came in Orlando and in Miami, and they only scored a total of 156 points in those two games. That's incredibly uncharacteristic for a squad that is putting up the sixth most points per game in the NBA this year (103.4). Rebounding is starting to become an issue for this slightly undersized squad. After F Al Horford (9.8 rebounds per game) and F Josh Smith (8.1 rebounds per game), no one is bringing down more than five boards a night.
Injuries continue to be the theme of the Celtics, but G Rajon Rondo and F Paul Pierce now look to be at 100% and ready to keep Boston on track towards another Atlantic Division title. The question marks left on this team are F Kevin Garnett and G Tony Allen, both of which could be back in the lineup playing regular minutes any day now. HC Doc Rivers' squad is all about the defense, as it ranks in the Top-10 in every major defensive category.
Atlanta has had its way with Boston this season. The Hawks won 93-85 at home against the Celtics just three days ago, and posted an impressive 97-86 victory in their first visit to the Garden this year back in November. With Boston looking to finally get one against these guys, we’re gonna stay away from the side and play into the ‘total’ instead. The under has cashed 12 of the L/16 times Atlanta’s been installed an underdog, and its cashed 19 of the L/28 times Boston’s played on no rest. These teams have already played to the under twice this season, and its cashed 10 of the L/14 times these teams have met in Boston. Look for a defensive minded slugfest tonight as well!
Tony Weston
Just a horrible call yesterday as the Packers and Cardinals put up plenty of points in a shootout that goes well Over the Total.
I’m not making a mistake tonight as I’m delivering with Villanova on the road at Louisville.
The Wildcats come into this game 14-1 SU this season and having covered in 10 of 14 lined games this season and now get to battle a Louisville team that’s covered in just 5 of 11 lined games this year.
Consider that Villanova has won 5 consecutive games SU and has gone 4-1 ATS in that stretch. On the road this year the Wildcats have gone 5-3 ATS and have covered in each of their last 2 games away from home.
Louisville, on the other hand, has covered in just 10 of its last 38 home games against teams with a winning road record and is just 2-5 ATS its last 7 games coming off a SU win.
The Cardinals have covered in just 3 of their last 9 lined games and will drop another one tonight. Take Villanova on the road in this one.
3? VILLANOVA
Drew Gordon
New Orleans at PHILADELPHIA -1'
34-23-3 roll L60 Bonus Plays, incl. the Cardinals Sunday & Cowboys Saturday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Hornets/76ers match up.
You guys really think betting the NBA is that easy? Yes, the surging Hornets are a "seemingly" attractive play as road underdogs at Philly tonight, but that hardly means they're an automatic buy! They've won 6 straight and average bettors everywhere are lining up to take them at this price tonight... As usual, its too little, too late for the average guys, as this streak ends tonight and here's why:
First of all this Hornets team may have won 6 straight (5-1 ATS), but have you acutally watched those games? Guys, we're talking about a team that barely beat New Jersey at home, and played a close game at Washington in their L2 games! Now they're in a situational bind, playing in the tail-end of a back-to-back, against a rested Philly team desperate for a home win.
That brings me to my next point, the 76ers have lost 4 straight in front of the home fans, and are highly-motivated after a confidence-building win at Detroit. They played one of their better games this season Saturday, and I expect that will carryover tonight.
Finally, although I know there's a lot of trends pointing the other way, one trend that really stands out to me is the Hornets 2-9 record ATS in their L11 games vs a team with a losing record! In other words, New Orleans tends to play down to the level of their competition, and I expect that'll happen once again tonight. In the end, the public gets massacred in this spot, but my clients know better, as the 76ers circle the wagons at home Monday night!
Take Philadelphia over New Orleans in this NBA match up.
2? PHILADELPHIA
Dominic Fazzini
Miami +7' at UTAH
Give credit to Bruce Pearl and his Tennessee basketball team for stepping up though short-handed Sunday and taking down top-ranked Kansas. I didn't see that coming and got stuck with a loss with my complimentary selection in the process. I'm still on a 55-36-1 run, including 38-23-1 over the past 62 days, however.
I've got an NBA winner for you today, backing the underdog Heat at Utah. Miami has struggled a bit lately, losing five of its last seven games, but it loves playing against the Jazz.
The Heat has won 11 of their last 12 games against Utah, including four straight in Salt Lake City, and also has gone 11-1 ATS during that time.
Miami held the Jazz to 70 points on Dec. 23 in the teams' last meeting, a 10-point home win by the Heat.
Miami star Dwyane Wade has thrived in his last five games in Salt Lake, averaging 27 points and 7.4 assists, shooting 50 percent in the process.
The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Utah, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the teams' last seven meetings. Take Miami to cover the points as a 'dog tonight.
SportsAction365.com............. CBB - Utah State under 137
NSA Wins............................. NBA - Celtics over 192
VegasSI.com ........................CBB - Idaho -8
Charlies Sports..................... NBA - Suns under 211
GameDay Net. ......................CBB - Utah State -17.5
Gerry "Big Cat" Andino........... CBB - Bosie State +3.5
Vincent Pioli ........................CBB - Murray State over 129
Chicago Sports Group ............CBB - Oklahoma -1
Fred Callahan....................... NBA - Jazz 7.5
Tony Campone..................... CBB - Villanova +3
Jimmy Boyd
Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers (NBA) - Jan 11, 2010 7:05 PM EST
Play: Total: 216.5/-112 Over Pick Title: Bonus Play
Bonus Play 1 Unit on Raptors/Pacers OVER 216.5 The last two meetings between these two teams have seen the total score reach the 230’s, and I expect another high scoring one here. Toronto is 13-6 Over this season as it is allowing nearly 109 ppg, and its defense will suffer even more tonight as it just played Sunday against the Celtics. Defense suffers more than anything in back-to-back spots. Plus, we should see the explosive Pacers we are used to seeing as Danny Granger and Troy Murphy are now back in the lineup. The Over is 6-1 in the Pacers’ last 7 overall and 6-1 in the Raptors’ last 7 overall. We’ll bet the Over.
ALEX SMART
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics
PICK: Under190
If the Hawks could just figure out a way to stay out of Florida, they'd be in a lot better shape. Their L/2 ATS defeats came in Orlando and in Miami, and they only scored a total of 156 points in those two games. That's incredibly uncharacteristic for a squad that is putting up the sixth most points per game in the NBA this year (103.4). Rebounding is starting to become an issue for this slightly undersized squad. After F Al Horford (9.8 rebounds per game) and F Josh Smith (8.1 rebounds per game), no one is bringing down more than five boards a night.
Injuries continue to be the theme of the Celtics, but G Rajon Rondo and F Paul Pierce now look to be at 100% and ready to keep Boston on track towards another Atlantic Division title. The question marks left on this team are F Kevin Garnett and G Tony Allen, both of which could be back in the lineup playing regular minutes any day now. HC Doc Rivers' squad is all about the defense, as it ranks in the Top-10 in every major defensive category.
Atlanta has had its way with Boston this season. The Hawks won 93-85 at home against the Celtics just three days ago, and posted an impressive 97-86 victory in their first visit to the Garden this year back in November. With Boston looking to finally get one against these guys, we’re gonna stay away from the side and play into the ‘total’ instead. The under has cashed 12 of the L/16 times Atlanta’s been installed an underdog, and its cashed 19 of the L/28 times Boston’s played on no rest. These teams have already played to the under twice this season, and its cashed 10 of the L/14 times these teams have met in Boston. Look for a defensive minded slugfest tonight as well!
Tony Weston
Just a horrible call yesterday as the Packers and Cardinals put up plenty of points in a shootout that goes well Over the Total.
I’m not making a mistake tonight as I’m delivering with Villanova on the road at Louisville.
The Wildcats come into this game 14-1 SU this season and having covered in 10 of 14 lined games this season and now get to battle a Louisville team that’s covered in just 5 of 11 lined games this year.
Consider that Villanova has won 5 consecutive games SU and has gone 4-1 ATS in that stretch. On the road this year the Wildcats have gone 5-3 ATS and have covered in each of their last 2 games away from home.
Louisville, on the other hand, has covered in just 10 of its last 38 home games against teams with a winning road record and is just 2-5 ATS its last 7 games coming off a SU win.
The Cardinals have covered in just 3 of their last 9 lined games and will drop another one tonight. Take Villanova on the road in this one.
3? VILLANOVA
Drew Gordon
New Orleans at PHILADELPHIA -1'
34-23-3 roll L60 Bonus Plays, incl. the Cardinals Sunday & Cowboys Saturday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Hornets/76ers match up.
You guys really think betting the NBA is that easy? Yes, the surging Hornets are a "seemingly" attractive play as road underdogs at Philly tonight, but that hardly means they're an automatic buy! They've won 6 straight and average bettors everywhere are lining up to take them at this price tonight... As usual, its too little, too late for the average guys, as this streak ends tonight and here's why:
First of all this Hornets team may have won 6 straight (5-1 ATS), but have you acutally watched those games? Guys, we're talking about a team that barely beat New Jersey at home, and played a close game at Washington in their L2 games! Now they're in a situational bind, playing in the tail-end of a back-to-back, against a rested Philly team desperate for a home win.
That brings me to my next point, the 76ers have lost 4 straight in front of the home fans, and are highly-motivated after a confidence-building win at Detroit. They played one of their better games this season Saturday, and I expect that will carryover tonight.
Finally, although I know there's a lot of trends pointing the other way, one trend that really stands out to me is the Hornets 2-9 record ATS in their L11 games vs a team with a losing record! In other words, New Orleans tends to play down to the level of their competition, and I expect that'll happen once again tonight. In the end, the public gets massacred in this spot, but my clients know better, as the 76ers circle the wagons at home Monday night!
Take Philadelphia over New Orleans in this NBA match up.
2? PHILADELPHIA
Dominic Fazzini
Miami +7' at UTAH
Give credit to Bruce Pearl and his Tennessee basketball team for stepping up though short-handed Sunday and taking down top-ranked Kansas. I didn't see that coming and got stuck with a loss with my complimentary selection in the process. I'm still on a 55-36-1 run, including 38-23-1 over the past 62 days, however.
I've got an NBA winner for you today, backing the underdog Heat at Utah. Miami has struggled a bit lately, losing five of its last seven games, but it loves playing against the Jazz.
The Heat has won 11 of their last 12 games against Utah, including four straight in Salt Lake City, and also has gone 11-1 ATS during that time.
Miami held the Jazz to 70 points on Dec. 23 in the teams' last meeting, a 10-point home win by the Heat.
Miami star Dwyane Wade has thrived in his last five games in Salt Lake, averaging 27 points and 7.4 assists, shooting 50 percent in the process.
The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Utah, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the teams' last seven meetings. Take Miami to cover the points as a 'dog tonight.
Not a good guess! I see kids guessing at plays according to line movement. This time of the season, lines are very tight. You have to go w/ the "released" line before movement and buy pts. if appropriate. i.e w/ RAS yesterday, I saw someone just post the teams. If you bet those teams by the closing line you probably would have lost both plays. Just a heads-up!
